The SERENE Project
The SERENE project produced a decision
support method, with a supporting tool, for quantifying safety of
complex systems using Bayesian Networks.
The method helps safety analysts and
engineers combine diverse forms of evidence together in order to
predict safety or risk at any stage in the development
life-cycle. A number of key benefits are provided to users of the
SERENE method:
- rationally combine different sources
and types of evidence in a single model
- identify weaknesses in the safety
argument such that it can be improved
- identify weaknesses in products and
processes to aid process improvement
- specify degrees of confidence
associated with predictions
- provide a sound basis for rational
discussion and negotiation about the systems development and
deployment
Why Bayesian Networks is Used
for Safety and Risk Evaluation
Bayesian Networks (BNs) form the core
technology in the SERENE method. These allow the specification of
risk models that represent the key factors and their
inter-relationships (qualitative model) with probability values
and distributions estimated via expert judgement or from data
(quantitative model). With the SERENE tool you can build
large-scale risk BN models quickly and efficiently. The SERENE
tool helps you to:
- use idioms to build up a safety
argument from repeating patterns
- draw cause-effect BN graphs using an
intuitive visual editor
- specify probability tables manually
or automatically using deterministic and statistical
functions
- apply object oriented Bayesian nets
(OOBNs) to organise and structure your analysis
- execute the network using fast
evidence propagation algorithms
- perform what-if and sensitivity
analysis on the results
- export the results in HTML format for
inclusion in reports
The method has now been applied in a number
of case studies, as part of the project itself, and in a number
of commercial projects. Indeed the SERENE method has also been
used for general risk and reliability assessment in addition to
predicting systems safety.
